The Golden Globe Awards will be taking place on January 16. Generally, whoever wins at the Globes has a good chance at winning at the Oscars a month later.
While the Golden Globes has both movie and TV categories, I'm just going to make predictions for the movie awards.
Here they are:
Best Picture – Drama
Nominees:
The Aviator
Closer
Finding Neverland
Hotel Rwanda
Kinsey
Million Dollar Baby
Prediction: Million Dollar Baby
Alternate: The Aviator
Reason: This category is really just between two movies: The Aviator and Million Dollar Baby. While The Aviator is a really good movie and it has a good chance of winning, Million Dollar Baby is the more emotional of the two and I think that's enough to bring it on top.
Best Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
The Incredibles
The Phantom of the Opera
Ray
Sideways
Prediction: Sideways
Alternates: Ray, Eternal Sunshine
Reason: I was going to say Ray, but Sideways is just all over the place right now. Sadly I don't have a personal opinion on that movie (I was planning on seeing Sideways at last year's Toronto Film Festival, but it was sold out when I went to get tickets). However Sideways does have the most Golden Globe nominations and I think it's going to to sneak in and get the award.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees:
Javier Bardem for The Sea Inside
Johnny Depp for Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio for The Aviator
Don Cheadle for Hotel Rwanda
Liam Neeson for Kinsey
Prediction: Leonardo DiCaprio
Alternates: Johnny Depp, Don Cheadle
Reason: The acting awards are always tough to predict (especially since I never see all the roles). The only one of these performances I've seen is Leonardo DiCaprio's. However, I believe his performance as Howard Hughes was good enough to win his the award. I have also been hearing good things aboue Johnny Depp's and Don Cheadle's performances, so I am putting them as alternates.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Nominees:
Scarlett Johansson for A Love Song for Bobby Long
Nicole Kidman for Birth
Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake
Hilary Swank for Million Dollar Baby
Uma Thurman for Kill Bill: Vol. 2
Prediction: Hilary Swank
Alternate: Imelda Staunton
Reason: Hilary Swank came from no where to win Best Actress, at the Oscars, a few years ago for Boys Don't Cry. Now she's back in the awards race with Million Dollar Baby. Swank gives a very emotional performance in the movies, especially in the final third of the film. Personally, I believe she is the top contender for this award. However, I have also been hearing a lot of good things about Imelda Staunton, so she's my alternate.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Jim Carrey for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Jamie Foxx for Ray
Paul Giamatti for Sideways
Kevin Kline for De-Lovely
Kevin Spacey for Beyond the Sea
Prediction: Jamie Foxx
Alternates: Jim Carry, Kevin Kline
Reason: 2004 was the year where Jamie Foxx really started growing up as an actor. I believe he's pretty much a shoe-in for this award.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Nominees:
Annette Bening for Being Julia
Ashley Judd for De-Lovely
Emmy Rossum for The Phantom of the Opera
Kate Winslet for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Renée Zellweger for Bridget Jones: The Edge of Reason
Prediction: Kate Winslet
Alternate: Emmy Rossum
Reason: Kate Winslet really played a different kind of character, than she usually plays, in Eternal Sunshine. I think it's good enough to win the award. However, I've been hearing the Emmy Rossum's performance was one of the good things I've heard about The Phantom of the Opera. So, I think she has a good chance of winning as well.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
David Carradine for Kill Bill: Vol. 2
Thomas Haden Church for Sideways
Jamie Foxx for Collateral
Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby
Clive Owen for Closer
Prediction: Jamie Foxx
Alternate: Morgan Freeman
Reason: While Ray confirmed it, this movie was really the first to show that Jamie Foxx was more than just the star of urban romantic comedies. As such, he has a good chance to pick up both this award and the Best Actor award for Ray.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Nominees:
Cate Blanchett for The Aviator
Laura Linney for Kinsey
Virginia Madsen for Sideways
Natalie Portman for Closer
Meryl Streep for The Manchurian Candidate
Prediction: Cate Blanchett
Alternate: Natalie Portman
Reason:Cate Blanchett has always been a chameleon in her movie roles and her role as Katharine Hepburn is no exception.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Nominees:
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland
Mike Nichols for Closer
Alexander Payne for Sideways
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator
Prediction: Martin Scorsese
Alternate: Clint Eastwood
Reason: Scorsese already won with Gangs of New York 2 years ago, however I think he will win again on his way to (hopefully) winning his first Best Director Oscar.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Nominees:
The Aviator – John Logan
Closer – Patrick Marber
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – Charlie Kaufman
Finding Neverland – David Magee
Sideways – Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor
Prediction: Charlie Kaufman
Reason: If Eternal Sunshine wins any awards at the Globes, it will be this one. Charlie Kaufman really deserves to rewarded for his fine efforts over the last 6 years or so.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Nominees:
The Aviator – Howard Shore
Finding Neverland – Jan A.P. Kaczmarek
Million Dollar Baby – Clint Eastwood
Sideways – Rolfe Kent
Spanglish – Hans Zimmer
Prediction: Howard Shore
Alternate: Clint Eastwood
Reason: I don't pretend to have heard all these scores. However, Howard Shore won last year for Return of the King and I believe the music in The Aviator was good enough to win this year. However, don't take my word on it.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Nominees:
Alfie (“Old Habits Die Hard”)
Hotel Rwanda (“Million Voices”)
The Phantom of the Opera (“Learn To Be Lonely”)
The Polar Express (“Believe”)
Shrek 2 (“Accidentally In Love”)
Prediction: Learn to Be Lonely
Alternates: Old Habits Die Hard, Accidently In Love
Reason: This category is always a pretty hard one to predict. However, I think I will pick the, Andrew Llyod Webber composed, Learn To Be Lonely. However, if it wasn't a cover song (and hence not eligable), I would've picked Beck's haunting “Everybody's Got To Learn Sometimes” from Eternal Sunshine for the Spotless Mind.
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees:
The Sea Inside (Spain/France/Italy)
A Very Long Engagement (France)
House of Flying Daggers (Hong Kong)
The Motorcycle Diaries (Brazil)
The Chorus (France)
Prediction: The Sea Inside
Alternate: The Motorcycle Diaries
Reason: I have to admit that I don't really watch Foreign films. However, I have been hearing a lot of good things about The Sea Inside, so I will be choosing that.
And those my predictions. If you are curious how accurate I am, from the predictions I made last year (before this blog was created), I predicted 7 out of 12 awards correctly. These are, of course, my predictions. You are free to post comments with your own predictions.
I'll probably post the results shortly after the ceremony on the 16th.
