2009 Oscar Predictions

This being the first year I saw all five best picture nominees BEFORE they were announced, I would think that I have a good idea where this year’s Oscars are heading.

I already wrote my predictions for the major categories as part of a round-table for MONDOmagazine. You may check out the two-part article here and here. However, I will of course repeat those predictions here.

So, let’s get on to them….

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Reason: This has definitely been a good year for Slumdog Millionaire. It has won pretty much every other prize and it will probably pick up this one too.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Richard Jenkins for The Visitor
Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn for Milk
Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler

Prediction: Mickey Rourke
Alternate: Frank Langella

Reason: Unlike the Golden Globes, where I chose Langella, I’m sticking with Rourke.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:
Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie for Changeling
Melissa Leo for Frozen River
Meryl Streep for Doubt
Kate Winslet for The Reader

Prediction: Kate Winslet
Alternate: Anne Hathaway

Reason: She’s nominated for the wrong film, but I still see Kate Winslet getting the statue.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Josh Brolin for Milk
Robert Downey Jr. for Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt
Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road

Prediction: Heath Ledger
Alternate: Michael Shannon

Reason: While it may be a sympathy win, Heath Ledger still deserves the posthumous Oscar.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:
Amy Adams for Doubt
Penélope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis for Doubt
Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei for The Wrestler

Prediction: Marisa Tomei
Alternate: Penélope Cruz

Reason: This was a tough category to call, but I’m going with Tomet

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:
Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
Stephen Daldry for The Reader
David Fincher for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard for Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant for Milk

Prediction: Danny Boyle
Alternate: David Fincher

Reason: Boyle getting this Oscar is probably in the bag.

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:
Frozen River: Courtney Hunt
Happy-Go-Lucky: Mike Leigh
In Bruges: Martin McDonagh
Milk: Dustin Lance Black
WALL·E: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter, Jim Reardon

Prediction: Happy-Go-Lucky
Alternate: Milk

Reasion: I’m being hopeful for this one. Hopefully, it’s not just a guess.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Eric Roth, Robin Swicord
Doubt: John Patrick Shanley
Frost/Nixon: Peter Morgan
The Reader: David Hare
Slumdog Millionaire: Simon Beaufoy

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Reason: Yeah, I smell a sweep.

Well, those are the main categories. As always, you may stop now or continue reading my educated guesses for the technical awards (though I admit the guesses are more educated these days than they were).

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:
Changeling: Tom Stern
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Claudio Miranda
The Dark Knight: Wally Pfister
The Reader: Roger Deakins, Chris Menges
Slumdog Millionaire: Anthony Dod Mantle

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Angus Wall, Kirk Baxter
The Dark Knight: Lee Smith
Frost/Nixon: Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill
Milk: Elliot Graham
Slumdog Millionaire: Chris Dickens

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: Frost/Nixon

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:
Changeling: James J. Murakami, Gary Fettis
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Donald Graham Burt, Victor J. Zolfo
The Dark Knight: Nathan Crowley, Peter Lando
The Duchess: Michael Carlin, Rebecca Alleway
Revolutionary Road: Kristi Zea, Debra Schutt

Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:
Australia: Catherine Martin
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Jacqueline West
The Duchess: Michael O’Connor
Milk: Danny Glicker
Revolutionary Road: Albert Wolsky

Prediction: The Duchess
Alternate: Australia

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Alexandre Desplat
Defiance: James Newton Howard
Milk: Danny Elfman
Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman
WALL·E: Thomas Newman

Prediction: Slumdog Millionaire
Alternate: WALL·E

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:
Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman, Sampooran Singh Gulzar(“Jai Ho”)
Slumdog Millionaire: A.R. Rahman, Maya Arulpragasam(“O Saya”)
WALL·E: Peter Gabriel, Thomas Newman(“Down to Earth”)

Prediction: Jai Ho
Alternate: Down to Earth

Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Greg Cannom
The Dark Knight: John Caglione Jr., Conor O’Sullivan
Hellboy II: The Golden Army: Mike Elizalde, Thomas Floutz

My Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce, Mark Weingarten
The Dark Knight: Ed Novick, Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo
Slumdog Millionaire: Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke, Resul Pookutty
WALL·E: Tom Myers, Michael Semanick, Ben Burtt
Wanted: Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño, Petr Forejt

My Prediction: Wall·E
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:
The Dark Knight: Richard King
Iron Man: Frank E. Eulner, Christopher Boyes
Slumdog Millionaire: Tom Sayers
WALL·E: Ben Burtt, Matthew Wood
Wanted: Wylie Stateman

My Prediction: WALL·E
Alternate: The Dark Knight

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button: Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton, Craig Barron
The Dark Knight: Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Timothy Webber, Paul J. Franklin
Iron Man: John Nelson, Ben Snow, Daniel Sudick, Shane Mahan

My Prediction: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Alternate: Iron Man

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL·E

My Prediction: Wall·E
Alternate: Kung Fu Panda

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:
The Baader Meinhof Complex, Germany
The Class, France
Departures, Japan
Revanche, Austria
Waltz with Bashir, Israel

My Prediction: Waltz with Bashir
Alternate: The Class

Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:
The Betrayal – Nerakhoon
Encounters at the End of the World
The Garden
Man on Wire
Trouble the Water

My Prediction: Man on Wire
Alternate: The Garden

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:
The Conscience of Nhem En
The Final Inch
Smile Pinki
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306

Prediction: The Conscience of Nhem En
Alternate: Smile Pinki

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:
La Maison en petits cubes
Lavatory – Lovestory
Oktapodi
Presto
This Way Up

Prediction: Presto
Alternate: La Maison en petits cubes

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:
Auf der Strecke (On the Line)
Manon on the Asphalt
New Boy
The Pig
Spielzeugland (Toyland)

Prediction: The Pig
Alternate: Manon on the Asphalt

And those are my predictions!